Richter Scale® Articles


Monday, December 11, 2006

Forecasts for 2007

Posted on December 11, 2006 at 11:25pm AST (GMT-04:00)

(This commentary first appeared in the December 11, 2006 issue of Jon Peddie’s TechWatch as part of a collection of commentaries by Jon Peddie Research analysts, including myself)

The Intro (by Jon Peddie): “The coming years are going to be even more surprising… Believing as we do that technology is growing at an exponential rate (and not just at Moore’s law rate), some of our colleagues have ventured a guess as to what’s coming in the next few years.”

Jake Richter’s Forecast

HDMI switches — Sales of HMDI switches will grow from virtually none to many thousands as consumers discover they have more devices with HDMI output than their TVs will support.

No cross-platform yet — Portable, cross-platform, online gaming will still not take off, even with Xbox Live being launched across multiple platforms. Device capabilities will still be too divergent to support proper playability.

Video downloads — Downloaded video to consumer electronics devices will continue to grow at a very rapid rate as mobile and living room devices add video storage, playback capability.

More spam please — Spam emails and messages, already at over 90% of all email traffic, will get even worse, forcing people to take draconian efforts to get only the mail they want, without spam.

Wii wins — Nintendo’s Wii sales will surpass Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 sales by early 2008 as more women discover that it is family- and woman-friendly, relatively inexpensive, and provides a good workout.

Posted by Jake Richter in • Hardware and SoftwareVideo GamingColumnsTechWatch
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What Was Significant in 2006

Posted on December 11, 2006 at 11:09pm AST (GMT-04:00)

(This commentary first appeared in the December 11, 2006 issue of Jon Peddie’s TechWatch as part of a collection of commentaries by Jon Peddie Research analysts including myself)

The Intro (by Jon Peddie): “...With all that was going on, we asked our group of experts what they thought were the top ten events of 2006 in the computer industry. Eight of us participated in the exercise, which gave us a broad range of viewpoints and opinions. Everyone had ideas about the significant things of 2006, and a few of us even agreed with each other. But sometimes the choices aren’t as important as the thinking behind them...”

And here’s what I had to say:

Jake Richter, Senior Analyst

1080p — 1080p TVs become available.

HD-DVD and Blu-ray — HD-DVD and Blu-ray players and content hit the market, and boy do they look great on even 720p TVs (but better on 1080p).

PS3 — Sony ships the PS3.

Vista — Microsoft doesn’t ship Vista (to consumers).

More storage — Media storage capacities went through the roof, with 750-GByte hard disks, and 4-GByte and 8-GByte media cards, enabling more content generation and creation.

Video downloads — Video down-loads hit mainstream with iTunes and Xbox Live.

DRM — Microsoft’s Plays For Sure don’t play so sure on Zune, demon-strating how dangerous committing to DRM really is for consumers and Microsoft’s partners alike.

GPU watts — Just when you think graphics hardware can’t get faster and better, it does, but at the cost of a noticeably higher electric bill.

Wii — Nintendo ships the Wii and then benefits from additional PR when users smack each other and TVs by gesturing too wildly and enthusiastically.

Web 2.0 — Google’s deep pockets help Web 2.0 efforts such as YouTube spread in spite of intellectual property concerns.

Posted by Jake Richter in • Hardware and SoftwareVideo GamingColumnsTechWatch
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Friday, June 09, 2006

On Becoming a Gaming Pro - Where Jake explores avenues of employment for his children

Posted on June 09, 2006 at 8:09pm AST (GMT-04:00)

(This article first appeared in the May 22, 2006 issue of Jon Peddie’s TechWatch)

As the father of two avid game-playing children (a 9-year-boy and a nearly 11-year-old girl), I have long wanted to explore the career options that might be available to them as professional gamers, and E3 offered the perfect opportunity to do a little research. After all, if there is one place where the world’s best professional gamers could be found at the same time, it would be E3.

I hooked up with two members of the esteemed F-Players at the Fatal1ty booth. As you may know, Fatal1ty is the gamer handle for Johnathan Wendel, perhaps the world’s best-known pro gamer, and the best there is when it comes to merchandising and marketing himself. While John was busy on stage blasting the shorts off some gaming wannabe, I spent a bit of time with Magnus “fojji” Olsson and Alessandro “Stermy” Avallone.

Italian bred and raised, Alessandro (Stermy), now age 19, was of particular interest to me, as he was the youngest competitor to have ever competed in the World Cyber Games—at the tender age of 15. Stermy is now ranked as one of the top three competitive gamers in the world and earns around $120,000 a year. And Swede Magnus (fojii), age 22, is even better than Stermy. Magnus starting competing professionally when he was 17 years old.


The F-Players are the world’s top professional gamers. From left to right, Magnus “fojji” Olsson, Johnathan “Fatal1ty” Wendel, Alessandro “Stermy” Avallone.

The Athletics of Gaming
Both Stermy and fojii stressed that professional gaming is an athletic sport—one requiring long hours of prac-tice, good physical health, dedication, and focus. That focus is now on the PC version of “Quake 4,” a game in which they spend many hours a day refining their strategy and improving their hand/eye coordination and knowledge of the game. The time investment is so great that Stermy still has a year of the Italian version of high school to finish should he want to pursue a university education.

Magnus stressed that a key ability of professional gamers, just as with other athletes, is that they must be able to perform under pressure—and certainly with the whole gaming world watching, and with countless upstarts wanting to test their mettle, the pressure is enormous.

But, as Stermy pointed out, all the practice and training in the world will not help someone if they don’t have natural talent for gaming. And that generally holds true for any other sport, too.

Magnus and Stermy have both been playing video games all their lives, but got into competitive gaming via LAN parties and playing against friends. From there they went to regional events, and ultimately to international events. Stermy has found one of the side benefits of professional gaming is that it real-ly is a very social activity, and as such he has made friends all over the world.

I asked the guys how their families have dealt with their unusual career choice. Magnus indicated that he was lucky in that his parents were supportive from the start. Stermy had to work a bit to make his parents understand that gaming could be a real job, and any concern and reluctance his parents had when he started has now been overcome with the results (and money) he’s bringing home.

So, what would their advice be to a young gamer wanting to go pro? Practice a lot, enter competitions whenever possible, but don’t bet your whole future on your possible success either—keep your options open.

girlz Of destruction
Later that evening, I happened to be having dinner with three of the girlz Of destruction, a professional all-female gaming team assembled with the support of hardware maker VIA and its S3 subsidiary, and discussed many of the same topics with them. While the athletic aspects and analogies Stermy and Magnus raised were stressed by Alana “Ms. X” Reid, Therese “trito” Andersson, and Livia “Liefje” Sophia as well, their take on professional gaming was from the female perspective.

The girlz all universally had encountered some sort of sex bias in their gaming careers, with the most typical being, “But you’re a girl! You can’t play video games,” which would generally be followed with the chauvinist being handed his butt on a platter by the female gamer he had just put down.

They all agreed, however, that parental support was vital in their careers, and that in some cases they had to prove to their parents that they had chosen a worthwhile career path. Several of the girlz (there are seven members of the team) also have other work they do in addition to being a gamer, including going to high school (Barbie—a 16-year-old from Russia) or college (Missy—a 19-year-old American).

And, while the F-Players focus on Quake IV on a PC to the exclusion of all other games, because that’s where the big prize money is, the girlz have pursued a variety of games and platforms because the competition options for women are not as focused, nor nearly as prize-rich. The girlz lacked the intensity that I saw in Magnus and Stermy, but at the same time had a lively spark and general appreciation of life, which I missed in the F-Players. I can’t honestly say whether that was just a male/female difference or one produced by the environments in which we spoke: couches on the noisy E3 show floor vs. a nice dinner at Roy’s Hawaiian Fusion Restaurant. Talking with the girlz was less intimidating by far.

So, what did I learn to pass on to my kids about gaming as a career? Focus on a game with lots of prizes and competitions, play it a lot, kick a lot of butt, but, please, most of all, finish school first.

Posted by Jake Richter in • Hardware and SoftwareVideo GamingColumnsTechWatch
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