(This commentary first appeared in the December 11, 2006 issue of Jon Peddie’s TechWatch as part of a collection of commentaries by Jon Peddie Research analysts, including myself)
The Intro (by Jon Peddie): “The coming years are going to be even more surprising… Believing as we do that technology is growing at an exponential rate (and not just at Moore’s law rate), some of our colleagues have ventured a guess as to what’s coming in the next few years.”
Jake Richter’s Forecast
HDMI switches – Sales of HMDI switches will grow from virtually none to many thousands as consumers discover they have more devices with HDMI output than their TVs will support.
No cross-platform yet – Portable, cross-platform, online gaming will still not take off, even with Xbox Live being launched across multiple platforms. Device capabilities will still be too divergent to support proper playability.
Video downloads – Downloaded video to consumer electronics devices will continue to grow at a very rapid rate as mobile and living room devices add video storage, playback capability.
More spam please – Spam emails and messages, already at over 90% of all email traffic, will get even worse, forcing people to take draconian efforts to get only the mail they want, without spam.
Wii wins – Nintendo’s Wii sales will surpass Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 sales by early 2008 as more women discover that it is family- and woman-friendly, relatively inexpensive, and provides a good workout.